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Voting has commenced for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data indicating that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again emerge victorious, although experts suggest PVV stands little chance of being part of the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which previously pulled off a surprise top result and formed a four-party right-leaning government that lasted barely a year, is now marginally ahead in surveys and is forecast to secure between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-seat house of representatives.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's support has dipped since 2023, when it won 37 seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out forming a government with Wilders, and who triggered the fall of the previous government in June amid a dispute concerning his controversial immigration plans.

Major Parties and Projections

Following a campaign focused on topics such as migration, healthcare costs, and the country's acute housing shortage, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, projected to win between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the centrist Democrats 66, predicted to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the PVV, VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all forecast to lose seats, with several experiencing significant declines.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

In the proportional Dutch system, gaining just less than one percent of the vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Of the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – including parties for the over-50s, youth parties, for animals, basic income advocates, and for sport – as many as 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This high degree of fragmentation means that no single party is expected to secure a majority, and Holland has been ruled by coalitions – typically composed of several groups in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the PVV ends up as the biggest group yet is shut out of government. But, critics and analysts say that winning the most seats does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a majority is a democratic outcome.

While the final outcome is hard to predict and coalition talks may require months, analysts indicate that following the most extreme government in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a broad-based alliance headed by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, opened at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable exit poll is expected soon after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will test possible coalitions that could secure enough support in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must face a vote of confidence in parliament before assuming power.