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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple formula. It commonly functions as a form of apology. Our apologies we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a direct path: the coach who engineered the largest improvement wins the prize. However, it fuels an annual argument about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding excellent coaching or merely the most shocking upset.

Yet the latest competition is distinctly unique. The pool of contenders is exceptionally strong. It has been the season of turnarounds. The NFL has been messy, with reigning division winners falling away and longtime strugglers improving in unison. During an typical year, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in this wild and fun year, he's facing five other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical vote ought to look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore signal-callers. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his special talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's sustained excellence. With his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme instead of improvising. It is an attack designed entirely in the coach's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady helping of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that creates wide-open receivers everywhere. Williams has capitalized. And when openings weren't there, he's been able to spin magic from broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive vision. Virtually every bet – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has paid off. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the organization with the level of expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme dork but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a ordinary year, he would be the overwhelming favorite. But the current is not a typical year!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for sustained winning. However Johnson comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has engineered a dramatic resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has excelled at the intangibles aspects, which was not a guarantee following his initial public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen bet on first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an initial hot start, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse had the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking reliable ones. The coach refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year argument has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed since that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only one place ahead of other QBs.

Still